We are Rome

 

From far away it seems a dream, a mirage, a hallucination that is familiar, but the colors are all wrong.  The music is in 7/8 instead of 3/4.  What once was 4k footage is now grainy black and white moving at 24 frames per second.

The vision is jangled.  What was once the USSR is now the USSA.  1979 to 1989 becomes 2001-2021.  The flushing of Blood and Treasure is the same but at an even greater scale.

The mountains remain.  Opium poppies spread in the valleys. The innocents still die for no reason.

I have heard historians describe the Soviet Afghan war as the "Vietnam" of the USSR.

Perhaps, they have it backwards

20 months passed between the withdrawal from Afghanistan till the final collapse of the Soviets.

The Soviet Afghan war did not kill the USSR in much the same way COVID 19 did not kill 94-year-old nursing home residents. 

The time had come.  It certainly did not help. 

But the time line was short to begin with.

“On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to Zero”

The lifetime of an empire is fixed.  They cannot last forever.  But only with the gift of hindsight can we peg the exact moment they ceased.

The warning signs of the cancer that eats them however are nearly universal. 

Profligate spending in the face of near certainty of bankruptcy.

Moral declines completely unimaginable a decade ago.

Complete abandonment of the principles that allowed their creation.

A legal system with laws for the many but not the 1%.

Senators of every stripe brazenly and hopelessly corrupt.

Former productive patriot citizens slowly go Galt.

Hordes of migrants with no allegiance to the empire flow in as a dam break.

Former Generals walk away rather than fight.

Citizens pacified by EBT and NFL, the modern bread and circus

Complete and total debasement of the currency.

Caesars so mentally ill they would not be left in charge of bringing the livestock in.

Roads and aqueducts abandoned to the elements, rather than be repaired.

We are Rome.

And we are living in it's last days

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2023 Bingo Card

 2023 Bingo Card

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Whiskey Tango Foxtrot (We Didn’t Start the Fire)

 “...Some men aren't looking for anything logical, like money. They can't be bought, bullied, reasoned, or negotiated with. Some men just want to watch the world burn.” Michael Caine

“Phoenix (/ˈfiːnɪks/; Ancient Greek: φοῖνιξ, phoînix) is a long-lived bird that cyclically regenerates or is otherwise born again. Associated with the sun, a phoenix obtains new life by arising from the ashes of its predecessor.” Wiki

“Pyromania is an impulse control disorder in which individuals repeatedly fail to resist impulses to deliberately start fires, in order to relieve tension or for instant gratification.” Wiki

 

I think you can see where we are headed in today’s missive.

But that can’t be where we start.

I see Facebook Posts, Tweets, TickToks, News Reporters all cry out Why?  When will it stop?

I regret to be the one to inform you that the lifestyle you ordered is Out of Stock.  Permanently.

Humpty Dumpty is not going back together.  Any attempt is re-arraigning deck chairs on the Titanic.  It’s fine if YOU want to do it.  Please don’t insist I do.  You would be better off building make-shift lifeboats to keep you out of the freezing water.  Or in the analogy of today’s post – Fire.

Our lifestyle, our economy, our empire, our government, our very society of 3 years ago was always unsustainable. 

The Wiley Coyote of the United States left the cliff sometime in the mid 1980’s.  If serious structural changes had been made at that point, we could have lost the empire but saved the country.  The voters of that time choose not to.

In 1999 Wiley found a Jet-Pack.  It was called the Federal Reserve. Wiley could fly. And he did.  Ever higher.  In 2008 Wiley flew ever higher. So high he could no longer see the cliff he alighted from.  But this jet pack had a slight issue.  It has no throttle.  It’s on.  Till it stops.  There is no safe return to the cliff.  It just allowed the wearer to survive a little longer. 

March 2020.  The jet pack released 3 trillion newtons of thrust.  Wiley is almost at escape velocity headed into orbit.  A spacesuit is nowhere to be found.  Neither are Parachutes.  And the air is getting Very Thin.

In a reference to John Micheal Greer ( start reading, you have much to catch up on) Wiley and thus the United States is in a Predicament.  This is different from a problem.  Problems can be solved.  Predicaments just are.

The Federal Reserve has continued to make fewer and fewer people richer and richer.  If you care to understand the mechanisms of this, I can teach you.  But for the moment take it as read that I have some semblance of an Idea of that which I speak.

You can throw race, social justice, shitty government, bought and paid for politicians along with other grievance’s in there as reasons the United States is a deer still running after being fatally shot.  But these aren’t new issues.  They were always there.  Some of them were getting better.  At least until Nixon closed the gold window in 1971.

That’s the lowpoint in income inequality. But look at us now!

So here we are.  A divided nation. And not just politicly.

Urban (blue) America no longer has the same value set as Suburban/Rural (red) America.

This is not a Judgment.  I’ll leave that to someone has the moral high ground.  I don’t live there.

BUT IT IS.

So back to fire.  American is figuratively and quite literally on fire.  This was a forgone conclusion.  All it need was a spark. 

Like a California wildfire with decades of fuel sitting in the undergrowth due to fire suppression, the United States has suppressed the natural cycle of business failure for so long that the productive assets of the economy are largely unproductive.  Tesla is worth $800 a share and starting a small business with more than one employee nearly financially impossible.

Like that tingle before a massive thunderstorm, the average person senses this with out really knowing the deeper causes.  The KNOW they are being ass-fucked with their head in a rest stop toilet but have no recollection of exactly how they came to be there.

And so we collectively feel the pyromania.  We feel the need to start the fires.

That is the only way we can rise from the ashes.

I would submit however, we are starting them in the wrong places.

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Lost in Translation - Normalcy Bias

 

During this "Pandemic" I have arrived at the wrong side of 40.  

Perhaps that gives me insight some may lack.  My age co-hort doesn’t currently seem to have the “It’s all about us” mentality so much of the Boomer generation shows.  Neither can we join our millennial and Gen Z brethren and join the chorus of “Lets Burn It All Down” so pervasive in the last few years. Yet.

I have watched the partisan-ing of Truth over the last 15 years so perhaps I was naïve.

But of all the suppositions that China-Flu has laid waste to, I find our ability to effectively communicate with each other in this nation to be the largest surprise. 

I watched the outbreak since the beginning.  I google translated Weibo chats and Mandarin twitter feeds when China’s censor army couldn’t keep up. Then came the pictures and videos of people collapsing in the street. Full ER’s. Full Morgues.  Doors of apartment buildings welded shut. The chilling skyline of Wuhan at night full of cries for help.

The communication at that time was clearly two sided. The truth of the people was in full opposition to lies of the PRC.  But in the following weeks new narratives emerged. Iran happened. Italy began.  It was now a certainty it would reach our shores, if there had been any doubt.  And at the same time so many diverging thoughts on what to do.  How deadly was it? Who is at risk? Many of the answers shouted at us, and between us, were completely opposite for the same question.

And so here we are today. 

My purpose here is not to tell you the answers.  I can’t say for sure my conclusions are correct, so to pass them off to you as truth is folly.

What I do want to make you aware of is some of the reasons we are diverging.

Today we tackle Normalcy Bias.

Lets say you bought a tiger cub from a former Netflix sensation. You take him to your home. You show him off to your friends. Every knows you as the guy with a tiger. 

Years go by.  Some nights he sleeps in your bed with you.  The Vet bills and raw meat rations are expensive, but you love him and he loves you.

A few years later your neighbor across the street calls 911 and in a panicked voice tells the operator there is a freaking tiger in her front yard.  After animal welfare and the local zoo have captured your pet, the police come knocking to find out just what the hell you think you are doing letting a tiger roam.  

After getting no answer they enter from your unlocked back door to find you in bed at 3AM.  With your windpipe removed. And completely mauled.

That’s Normalcy Bias.  A bad thing has never happened before, or not in a very long time, so it can’t possibly happen.  But it can.  And depending on the event, it WILL.

Live in a multi-story brick building in Memphis?  Live below the River Control Structure in Simmesport LA?  Have a 110 year old oak tree shading your house?  Drop your house insurance in Norman OK?

The New Madrid will shake again.  The Mississippi River will change course.  That oak tree will fall.  An F4 tornado will reduce your dwelling to the foundation.

The only question is when.

This is not to say that you should live in fear of an unlikely possibility.  But to deny its existence sets you up for event worse consequences. 

If your place in Memphis starts to sway you have time to exit.  But if you have no idea it’s a possibility or deny such, they will dig your body from the rubble, as opposed to Red Cross finding you a shelter for the night.

If the Army Corp of Engineers says the river is topping the levees but everything will probably be fine you can pack your family and dog and some clothes and cross the river and stay at the Comfort Inn in Zachary.

China Flu has shown how much of our society suffers this malady.  As the ripples of this event cross continents and cross oceans these words should not cross your lips. “That would never happen”

Global Borders would never shut.

Airlines will never stop flying.

Emergency Powers would never be used to stop protests.

Meat packing plants will never stop.

Out of control fertilizer prices would never stop farmers from planting.

               (WE ARE HERE)

We would never have trouble finding rebuilding supplies during hurricane season.

I would never have to go without my CPAP machine because the power is out for a week.

I would never have to lose weight because I can’t get my blood pressure meds.

The developing world will never face starvation.

An early May snowstorm would never lower crop yields in the US.

Solar Cycle 25 would never mean global cooling

We could never have new a Maunder Minimum.

 

Bottom line look realistically at your risks and hedge appropriately.

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Keeping Holodomor at a Distance

 Repost Cause we get to do it again.

As supply chain shocks continue to cause disruptions across our modern economy, many people are left wondering when all of this will go back to the way it was.

The instant just-in-time economy we knew 3 years ago is unlikely to return to its former state. 

This is not some apocalyptic scenario from a movie.  The next few years will be more like my Grandparents and Great Grandparents lives than what we have known in the last 30 years.  I may finally understand why my Grandmother would dry out and reuse paper towels. And why her collection of butter tubs was so extensive.

The best way to face uncertainty is to prepare, not fear. In the spirit of that I wanted to share some tips I have learned from the broader preparedness community.

Food:

Since I am a little on the heavy side I am going to start with food.  The future for most Americans is eating what is available as opposed to getting to choose anything you want at any time.  This is really a return to normal. It is within living memory that eating strawberries in January and citrus in July was simply not a thing.

At the end I go further in depth about items you may want to consider gathering, but here are some Main points.

Get to know your farmer.  The more local your supply is, the more reliable it generally is.  Join a CSA, go to your local farmers market.  Learn about eating in-season.  Do it as much as possible.

Expand your cooking knowledge.  Figure out what can sit on shelf and what will not.  Learn about root cellars, you can make them inside your house. Summer squash can rot in days, winter squash can last for a year.  Find a way to use everything.  This year when you thaw the turkey for Thanksgiving, maybe there IS a use for the frozen parts everyone threw out last year.  Bone broth is a thing you can do at home. A turkey carcass makes perfect broth.

Plant a garden, or a container.  Not because it can feed you or the family, calorically that isn’t possible.  But it will teach you about food production and keep you in the seasonal mindset.  And every item that you don’t have to pull thru a distressed supply chain makes it easier on others. Biggest return on effort are potatoes, corn, squash, sweet potatoes and corn.  Youtube is a wealth of people who can teach you.  Don’t re-invent the wheel.

Plan meals as far out as you can.  The further in the future you can match your meals with your food supply, the lest waste you will have.  Its also comforting for most people to know that they have food security.

Make group dishes.  I can make a giant stew with a turkey fryer and feed half the neighborhood.  And I will have zero food waste too.

Be Ready to Share.  This is not a few weeks event.  The disruptions may be months or may be how we live.  If you can score half a pig from some farmers who’s processor has shut down, share the wealth if possible.  The friend might be able to help you out in the future.

Learn to preserve food.  In my grandparent’s generation knowing how to can was a given.  It’s an easy way to deal with mother nature’s bounty and save it for later.  Like wise for dehydration (use your oven), fermenting, and sausage making.  Teach your children.

Consider Small-Scale Livestock.  Chickens are and easy add to most suburban yards.  They convert table scraps to eggs.  If you are less squeamish rabbits are an easy source of protein.  Adventurous? Get into beekeeping.

Utilities & Infrastructure:

The stresses on our global supply chain exist here as well.  But the problems are additive and possibly cascading. That means signs of problems will not show themselves like empty store shelves until YOU have a problem.

Electricity. Despite several senators’ fear mongering about the grid going down, that is simply not going to happen in the near term. We have too may talented engineers and linemen working 24/7/365 to keeps things running.  Every possible resource will be brought in to assure the three major interconnections stay up.  That does not mean you will not have local issues.  Most of the physical parts of our grid are made in China and they have LONG lead times.  That means the big parts that are needed at your local distribution center are going to be in short supply for years to come.  Seasonal storms that are normal in most times become harder to recover from.

I am not suggesting you run out and buy a whole house generator.  But a small inverter-generator and an extension cord that could run for two hours a day to keep your fridge cold for four or five days might be a prudent investment.  Same for some candles or other lighting solutions.

Water. Potable water in this country is a purely local affair with the exception of California. That means conditions vary widely…. just ask Flint, MI.  How well is your water utility managed? Do they have adequate stock of the various chemicals used to transform your local river to the water in your tap?  Oh and just for fun…. most of that is shipped bulk from china.  I would be prepared for the occasional “Boil your drinking water” order.  Also should clarifying chemicals become scare the EPA will throw the regulations out the window.  Meaning the water in your tap may be safe to drink from a virus/bacteria/protozoa standpoint but look less appetizing.  Plan accordingly.

Transportation. For most of us this means roads.  As local budgets are strained by the new normal, whatever your local roads look like, they are going downhill from there until local governments get right sized or the FED prints money to give to the states and distribute.  Watch out for the potholes and plan to spend more on tires and alignments.  And additional mention goes to driving less aggressively. Those parts that you need to repair your car, guess where those are not coming from right now.

Fuel.  To be blunt no one has any idea where Oil commodities and therefore the price or availability of fuel products is headed. Anyone who is sure is delusional. 

Public Safety. Like water this is local.  If you live in rural America you may have no impact. Chicago residents are noticing changes. But the blanket view is this, what ever your outlook in you local are was before this, the chance of you encountering crime is now greater. In my hood we have had car break-ins three nights in row.  This is not normal. Police forces are down manpower, courts are locked up, and lower grade offenders are being released all over the country.  Help that was slow to arrive in good times may not be coming. If you live in a location with rising crime, be prepared to help yourself.  Take some time to think about how much force you are willing to use to defend yourself or your family in a worst case scenario.  Then plan on how to do it.

Public Health. Divining here is tricky and predictions made today become invalid quickly due to so many moving variables.  The first point make is that early choices about the pandemic where made on information provided by a brutal totalitarian communist government.   They lie with impunity in good times, but the misinformation on the Virus is bordering on Crimes against Humanity military tribunal level bad.  This disease is bad. The way the way our federal and state governments have handled it is bad. And where it ends is anyone’s guess.

So instead I will focus on useful information that isn’t about the virus.  Y’all, we are going to have shortages of prescription drugs.  In some areas we already do but much of that is injectables used in a hospital setting.  If you take daily prescriptions research what alternatives in the same drug class exist, if there are any.  If you are seeing your doctor, be preventative and ask that question.  The time to figure it out is not at the pharmacy counter when you two days left.

I think the path forward for regular medicine has two major components.  First telemedicine is here to stay for most minor issues.  Sinus infection?  Telemedicine.  Secondly for acute care and regular hospitals we will find a way to run a dual system.  

Items to consider:

If you are having issues finding what you need be cure to try restaurant suppliers.  Gordon Food Services, Sysco, Restaurant Depot, or your local Cash and Carry.

Cooking dried items gets loads easier with an instapot

First I see lots of Costco Bags of rice. Kids let me tell you about the bugs that hatch out of those puppies. Took three months to get them outta my kitchen. Some food grade buckets and spin tops from Home Depot plus a little dry ice can prevent this. The Mormons have this figured out. Bottom of this page.

What goes for rice also goes for other bulk grains. Beans/Lentils/peas not so much.

Next up many of you are not grabbing enough protein. Think canned meats and soups. Canned fish and other seafood even if its not your fave. Food boredom is a thing. Country Ham is also shelf stable. Many dry sausages in you local deli department are as well. Also learn about rabbit starvation

Then...fiber. If you have never lived on a carb only diet (beans and rice) you are gonna need some. Whether it is a supplement or fresh / canned greens, you need it. Also when packing ones cart with pasta, throw in some whole wheat pasta.

 

Flavor! Hot sauces, condiments, seasonings, broth, bullion. Soy and Worcester are a must.

 

Fruits...there are many of these available in cans. Also many pears / apples will hold for a great while.

 

Fats. Ghee, lard, coconut oil, palm oil, avocado oil, (you can freeze butter) a little variety helps. If you plan on storing more olive oil than you will use right now, then get it in metal cans. Stays unrancid much longer this way. This is counter intuitive to most Americans but go back 200 years and fats were hard to come by.

 

Disinfection: Simple Green Pro D3 you can get instore at Home Depot.

The better choice is this:

 

Also if you are trying to purify water...skip the bleach. Buy a few packets of cheap pool shock and google the ratios. It goes a long way.

 

Other Good Storage Foods:

Powdered Milk. GFS has 5 pounds for $19

Idahoan Potatoes. Sealed in mylar. I just used a pack last night with a sell by date of 2010. Still Perfect.

Canned Queso.

Velveeta is shelf stable.

Any cheese that is dipped in wax will keep nearly forever in the fridge.

The Vigo and Mahatma Rice packets. Once again Mylar packaging holds up.

Kids squeeze tube yogurts. Store em in the freezer. Instant kinda ice cream.

Jello and Pudding.

Muffin /cookie/brownie mix packets

Big Blocks of Wrights or Costco bacon come out of the deep-freeze unscathed. Also KEEP YOUR BACON GREASE! Nothing makes canned green beans better. And a fried egg made in bacon grease is where its at.

IF you have a source for eggs from locals....water-glassing makes them store for years at room temp: https://timbercreekfarmer.com/water-glassing-fresh-egg-storage/

The Canned foods that you didn't think of: Olives. Jalapenos. All the kinds of chilis in the mexican food area. Salsa. Chicken. Corned Beef. Bulk popcorn. Not the microwave kind. Butter+skillet+lid = All the popcorn.

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Be a Pareto Prepper

“A fool and his money are soon parted, nowhere is this more true that at a Maserati dealership.”

 

Yesterday’s missive  on the use, or nonuse, of firearms optics ruffled the expected feathers.  Some readers may have missed the point of the exercise.  Therefore, some clarification is needed.

At no point did I dismiss the effectiveness of said devices. 

I simply questioned the longevity of OR spending large amount of capital on them.

(google Tin Whiskers if you think anything electronics made after 2006 you own that has solder will be around in 30years) 

Kiss of Death

I for instance own several chinesium clones that, at the time were about 30$US. 0

I have no illusions about how they would stand up to a daily beating, but for my purposes they will do 80% of the job for 10% of the money.

That number there is the Pareto Principle in action.

And I am a Pareto Prepper.

The idea that 20% of the effort / cash will get you 80% of the way.

The ratio can be 90/10 to 70/30.  For fun learn about Powerlaws and Gini Indicies.

 

Think of a whole home generator. I have many friends with them.  They are fantastic to have. But the bill they come with after installation can easily be 15,000$US.

But hang out in a few pawnshops for a few days and one can Find a used Honda EU3000 for less than a grand. After I add in 100ft 10/3 Extension Cord  (You do know about voltage drop, right?) 

I can do 90% of the job and have 14K to use on something else. 

Spend another 300$ on a transfer switch and some Jack Daniels for your buddy that can tie it in to the panel.....Things get even easier.

Sure I cannot fire up my A/C, but I can keep the freezers / fridges / well pump / instant gas hot water heater running a few hours a day and use less than half gallon of gasoline per day.  

How many therms of Natgas will they burn thru in a few days powering an entire home?

Oh wait.....if I add one of these to my A/C  

Then I CAN run the A/C and prolong its life as a side effect.

 

I see these examples everywhere:

Yeti Cooler vs Walmart Yeti knockoff

Freeze dried food vs a mixed pantry of staples and frozen foods

An Apple iPhone on Verizon vs A Google Fi phone and service

Snap On  vs Craftsman

Basically if your profession is not paying you to go the last 20% 

(Alaskan Field Guide,  Prepping Blogger,  Director of Communication at SOMEHuge INC,  Diesel Mechanic) .


Don’t do it.

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On Small Arms Spending

 

Here is why I do not share the enthusiasm for optics on pistols and to some extent rifles as well.  This would also apply to thermal and light multiplying systems as well.

Think back in history to the first fielding of the M-16.  Iron sight on a carry handle. It takes the start of the Sandbox Wars to find the frequent use of such things.  That is in living memory.

All the systems require energy dense disposable lithium batteries first developed for film cameras in the 1980’s.

The supply lines that makes these batteries possible are fragile and strained at the moment.  These batteries can store for many years, possibly 15 before degrading in charge state as to become unusable.  But 15 years a blink in the eye for human history.

I doubt my 5-year-old son will be able to acquire these when he is 25. And I am certain by 40 they will be unobtanium.

While force multipliers like reflex optics and night vision provide an EXTREME advantage over iron sights and a flashlight this advantage comes at a cost that often meets or exceeds the cost of the weapon on which they are mounted.

Meaning the for the same money I can have someone armed with me for the same capital.

Alternately I could invest that capital in resources (food, defensive fortifications, alternate locations) that make sure I don’t need to be in a gunfight in the first place.

If my job was to charge hard into the unknown on a daily basis, I would of course think very differently. 

On a side note but same theme….I think of firearms calibers in much the same way.

Or more specifically the powders that run them.

When the British first switched to Cordite from black powder the chemistry involves was such that after a few tries we could replicate it in a basement.

But if you think you are gonna drive a 28 Nosler with Retumbo you made in the shed out back you got another thing coming.

WorstCaseScenario I can make compressed black powder load in 30-30 and 45-70.

Point in that story is if you are using more modern cartridges with more modern powders you better invest in rounds or the ability to make them.  Then and only then should pricey optics come into play.

Once again, if Green Beret is you dayjob……..SutureSelf

Nostrofucious

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