Lost in Translation - Normalcy Bias

 

During this "Pandemic" I have arrived at the wrong side of 40.  

Perhaps that gives me insight some may lack.  My age co-hort doesn’t currently seem to have the “It’s all about us” mentality so much of the Boomer generation shows.  Neither can we join our millennial and Gen Z brethren and join the chorus of “Lets Burn It All Down” so pervasive in the last few years. Yet.

I have watched the partisan-ing of Truth over the last 15 years so perhaps I was naïve.

But of all the suppositions that China-Flu has laid waste to, I find our ability to effectively communicate with each other in this nation to be the largest surprise. 

I watched the outbreak since the beginning.  I google translated Weibo chats and Mandarin twitter feeds when China’s censor army couldn’t keep up. Then came the pictures and videos of people collapsing in the street. Full ER’s. Full Morgues.  Doors of apartment buildings welded shut. The chilling skyline of Wuhan at night full of cries for help.

The communication at that time was clearly two sided. The truth of the people was in full opposition to lies of the PRC.  But in the following weeks new narratives emerged. Iran happened. Italy began.  It was now a certainty it would reach our shores, if there had been any doubt.  And at the same time so many diverging thoughts on what to do.  How deadly was it? Who is at risk? Many of the answers shouted at us, and between us, were completely opposite for the same question.

And so here we are today. 

My purpose here is not to tell you the answers.  I can’t say for sure my conclusions are correct, so to pass them off to you as truth is folly.

What I do want to make you aware of is some of the reasons we are diverging.

Today we tackle Normalcy Bias.

Lets say you bought a tiger cub from a former Netflix sensation. You take him to your home. You show him off to your friends. Every knows you as the guy with a tiger. 

Years go by.  Some nights he sleeps in your bed with you.  The Vet bills and raw meat rations are expensive, but you love him and he loves you.

A few years later your neighbor across the street calls 911 and in a panicked voice tells the operator there is a freaking tiger in her front yard.  After animal welfare and the local zoo have captured your pet, the police come knocking to find out just what the hell you think you are doing letting a tiger roam.  

After getting no answer they enter from your unlocked back door to find you in bed at 3AM.  With your windpipe removed. And completely mauled.

That’s Normalcy Bias.  A bad thing has never happened before, or not in a very long time, so it can’t possibly happen.  But it can.  And depending on the event, it WILL.

Live in a multi-story brick building in Memphis?  Live below the River Control Structure in Simmesport LA?  Have a 110 year old oak tree shading your house?  Drop your house insurance in Norman OK?

The New Madrid will shake again.  The Mississippi River will change course.  That oak tree will fall.  An F4 tornado will reduce your dwelling to the foundation.

The only question is when.

This is not to say that you should live in fear of an unlikely possibility.  But to deny its existence sets you up for event worse consequences. 

If your place in Memphis starts to sway you have time to exit.  But if you have no idea it’s a possibility or deny such, they will dig your body from the rubble, as opposed to Red Cross finding you a shelter for the night.

If the Army Corp of Engineers says the river is topping the levees but everything will probably be fine you can pack your family and dog and some clothes and cross the river and stay at the Comfort Inn in Zachary.

China Flu has shown how much of our society suffers this malady.  As the ripples of this event cross continents and cross oceans these words should not cross your lips. “That would never happen”

Global Borders would never shut.

Airlines will never stop flying.

Emergency Powers would never be used to stop protests.

Meat packing plants will never stop.

Out of control fertilizer prices would never stop farmers from planting.

               (WE ARE HERE)

We would never have trouble finding rebuilding supplies during hurricane season.

I would never have to go without my CPAP machine because the power is out for a week.

I would never have to lose weight because I can’t get my blood pressure meds.

The developing world will never face starvation.

An early May snowstorm would never lower crop yields in the US.

Solar Cycle 25 would never mean global cooling

We could never have new a Maunder Minimum.

 

Bottom line look realistically at your risks and hedge appropriately.

Comments section here is the sandbox at preschool...y'all tards wanna throw sand in each others eyes, knock yourself out.....find your own hose.